Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 740 MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5305 MCI 15:24 → IAH 17:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 740 United Flight history →	MCI 06:16	IAH 08:25	5%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 594 United	MCI 08:17	IAH 10:25	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5305 SkyWest	MCI 15:24	IAH 17:36	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 6113 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 18:20	IAH 20:40	14%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 6124 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 14:56	IAH 17:13	16%	6%	1.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON