Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3658 at 15:41, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3658 Southwest	MCI 15:41	IND 18:21	13%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	56m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	4h 05m	96%	88%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	3h 02m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	7h 35m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	7h 19m	99%	86%
United Details →	MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	7h 24m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	5h 20m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	5h 49m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON