Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 10:30	JFK 14:44	14%	9%	3.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	5h 21m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	51m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	4h 33m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 13m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 42m	98%	83%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	1h 28m Charlotte	CLT 11:28 → JFK 13:28AA 374	5h 57m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	5h 20m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	6h 47m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	7h 29m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON