Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3368 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3368 MCI 05:46 → LGA 09:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2076 MCI 17:41 → LGA 21:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3368 Southwest	MCI 05:46	LGA 09:44	5%	2%	1.6%	no record
DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	6%	3%	1.7%	89%
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:40	LGA 14:32	16%	6%	1.5%	84%
WN 2636 Southwest	MCI 12:16	LGA 16:15	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:55	LGA 22:46	26%	13%	1.4%	75%
WN 2076 Southwest	MCI 17:41	LGA 21:39	30%	16%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON