Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2642 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2642 MCI 05:31 → MDW 07:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2648 MCI 19:31 → MDW 21:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2642 Southwest	MCI 05:31	MDW 07:06	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4850 Southwest	MCI 07:26	MDW 09:01	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2644 Southwest	MCI 10:36	MDW 12:12	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2388 Southwest	MCI 14:11	MDW 15:46	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2063 Southwest	MCI 16:11	MDW 17:47	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2648 Southwest	MCI 19:31	MDW 21:07	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON