Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 892 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 892 American Flight history →	MCI 05:00	MIA 09:18	10%	3%	1.5%	91%
MQ 3710 Envoy	MCI 17:04	MIA 21:11	26%	7%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → MIA 13:37DL 793	6h 14m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 23m	100%	84%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 40m	94%	80%
United Details →	MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740	3h 35m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 31m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	7h 01m	99%	79%
American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 24m	97%	78%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 36m Denver	DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:36UA 1418	8h 36m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	7h 31m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON