tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3601 at 17:51, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3601 Southwest MCI 17:51 MSY 19:57 15% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 58m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 14m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 39m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 30m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 58m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:52 → DEN 09:47UA 1384 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:25 → MSY 17:23UA 250 8h 31m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678 6h 08m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 12m 94% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON