Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4377 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 4377 MCI 05:10 → ORD 06:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5853 MCI 17:10 → ORD 18:49 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4377 Republic	MCI 05:10	ORD 06:57	6%	3%	1.5%	no record
OO 5680 SkyWest	MCI 06:04	ORD 07:43	8%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1491 United Flight history →	MCI 07:53	ORD 09:45	8%	4%	1.1%	86%
OO 5735 SkyWest	MCI 10:03	ORD 11:42	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2437 United Flight history →	MCI 11:25	ORD 13:15	14%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:24	ORD 11:07	14%	7%	1.0%	80%
OO 6215 SkyWest	MCI 12:21	ORD 13:58	18%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 5309 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 13:03	ORD 14:55	18%	11%	1.2%	76%
OO 6304 SkyWest	MCI 19:36	ORD 21:21	20%	11%	1.1%	no record
UA 303 United Flight history →	MCI 18:41	ORD 20:33	21%	10%	1.0%	75%
MQ 3517 Envoy	MCI 14:16	ORD 15:53	21%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 16:02	ORD 17:40	21%	10%	1.5%	76%
UA 1369 United	MCI 15:14	ORD 16:55	22%	9%	1.1%	no record
OO 5853 SkyWest	MCI 17:10	ORD 18:49	26%	14%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON