tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:55, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 512 Alaska MCI 14:57 PDX 16:33 12% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661 8h 18m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 05m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 19m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:52 → DEN 09:47UA 1384 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 8h 21m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 09m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 5h 47m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 10h 13m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 13:23 → ATL 16:30DL 2747 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:51DL 691 10h 28m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 14:10 → DTW 17:07DL 2741 2h 57m Detroit DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913 9h 38m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON