Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 946 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 946 American Flight history →	MCI 06:00	PHL 09:45	7%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 1480 American	MCI 12:46	PHL 16:46	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	7h 04m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	7h 51m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 13:23 → ATL 16:30DL 2747	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	8h 10m	100%	86%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 39m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	8h 12m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 24m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	47m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	4h 21m	93%	84%
American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → PHL 13:00AA 2255	6h 29m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON