Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4365 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4365 MCI 06:01 → PHX 06:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2654 MCI 19:41 → PHX 20:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4365 Southwest	MCI 06:01	PHX 06:58	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2652 Southwest	MCI 08:46	PHX 09:40	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 08:00	PHX 09:03	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 3332 Southwest	MCI 13:14	PHX 14:06	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2101 American Flight history →	MCI 14:14	PHX 15:14	14%	7%	0.6%	56%
WN 2654 Southwest	MCI 19:41	PHX 20:31	17%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON