Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2657 Southwest	MCI 10:16	SAN 11:46	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 15m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:09DL 761	9h 44m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:38DL 843	7h 59m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:14DL 924	8h 31m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	2h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 03m	99%	83%
United Details →	MCI 11:25 → ORD 13:15UA 2437	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 16:33 → SAN 19:05UA 2138	9h 40m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:01 → SAN 19:36DL 712	9h 20m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369	9h 42m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON