tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1498 at 18:06, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1498 Southwest MCI 18:06 SAT 20:14 13% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 59m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 6h 31m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 7h 58m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 5h 26m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 39m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 6h 43m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:52 → DEN 09:47UA 1384 3h 57m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 8h 03m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 1h 10m Houston IAH 09:35 → SAT 10:47UA 1371 4h 31m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 8h 10m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON