Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2051 United Flight history →	MCI 08:15	SFO 10:01	13%	5%	0.6%	94%
UA 561 United	MCI 17:35	SFO 19:32	21%	13%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 46m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 50m	99%	81%
United Details →	MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa	2h 36m Houston	IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202	9h 16m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495	9h 41m	99%	78%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 12:11 → SFO 14:30AA 1489	9h 59m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	57m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	7h 54m	97%	77%
United Details →	MCI 08:52 → DEN 09:47UA 1384	3h 38m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	8h 17m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON