tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 7h 11m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 5h 35m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 46m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 9h 15m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:52 → DEN 09:47UA 1384 1h 54m Denver DEN 11:41 → SMF 13:19UA 2673 6h 27m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57DL 2105 1h 13m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 9h 37m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 1h 32m Houston IAH 09:57 → SMF 11:58UA 1155 7h 42m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 09:24 → ORD 11:07AA 6349 · flown by SkyWest 47m Chicago ORD 11:54 → SMF 14:22AA 1906 6h 58m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON