Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2663 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2663 Southwest	MCI 05:06	TPA 08:46	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1625 Southwest	MCI 14:36	TPA 18:16	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264	7h 19m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 13m	99%	84%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 44m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	8h 14m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	6h 35m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:10 → DTW 17:07DL 2741	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	7h 25m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	52m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	5h 25m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	5h 15m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON