Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:05	3%	1%	0.5%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	4%	1%	0.5%	90%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	5%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 191 Southwest	MCO 09:01	ATL 10:46	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	13%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ATL 22:54	13%	5%	0.8%	72%
F9 1563 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:45	ATL 09:41	14%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:40	ATL 17:30	15%	5%	0.8%	67%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:38	ATL 17:13	16%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	16%	6%	4.3%	60%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	17%	6%	1.3%	55%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	18%	8%	1.2%	67%
WN 232 Southwest	MCO 15:16	ATL 17:00	18%	5%	1.4%	no record
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:00	ATL 11:46	18%	6%	0.8%	67%
WN 2670 Southwest	MCO 20:02	ATL 21:46	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:42	ATL 14:33	24%	9%	0.9%	70%
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	32%	12%	7.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON