Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4646 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4646 MCO 06:53 → AUS 08:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2675 MCO 17:27 → AUS 19:12 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4646 Southwest	MCO 06:53	AUS 08:39	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4404 Southwest	MCO 08:33	AUS 10:19	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 4523 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:04	AUS 10:00	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	12%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 4398 Southwest	MCO 11:54	AUS 13:39	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 794 Delta	MCO 18:16	AUS 19:59	19%	6%	1.8%	no record
WN 2674 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:54	AUS 17:39	20%	6%	1.5%	72%
WN 2675 Southwest	MCO 17:27	AUS 19:12	24%	6%	7.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON