Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3223 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3223 MCO 07:16 → BDL 10:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2884 MCO 20:16 → BDL 23:13 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3223 Southwest	MCO 07:16	BDL 10:15	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
B6 438 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:34	BDL 13:36	14%	7%	0.8%	66%
F9 1684 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:32	BDL 14:43	15%	7%	1.2%	83%
B6 138 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:40	BDL 19:40	28%	13%	2.5%	86%worse than usual
WN 2884 Southwest	MCO 20:16	BDL 23:13	30%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON