Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2711 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2711 MCO 06:12 → BNA 07:19 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1898 MCO 19:05 → BNA 20:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2711 Southwest	MCO 06:12	BNA 07:19	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2680 Southwest	MCO 08:57	BNA 10:04	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2681 Southwest	MCO 10:27	BNA 11:33	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2683 Southwest	MCO 11:27	BNA 12:34	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1285 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:05	BNA 10:17	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 2684 Southwest	MCO 14:07	BNA 15:13	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2685 Southwest	MCO 15:17	BNA 16:23	20%	5%	1.4%	no record
WN 2687 Southwest	MCO 20:11	BNA 21:17	23%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1898 Southwest	MCO 19:05	BNA 20:12	27%	7%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON