Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2436 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2436 MCO 07:00 → BOS 10:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1152 MCO 15:49 → BOS 19:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2436 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	BOS 10:10	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
F9 1978 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:00	BOS 09:09	8%	3%	0.9%	93%
B6 852 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:05	BOS 10:14	12%	4%	1.0%	61%
B6 552 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:07	BOS 13:20	18%	7%	0.9%	90%
DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:16	BOS 14:22	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 1474 Delta	MCO 19:55	BOS 23:02	29%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 987 American	MCO 13:13	BOS 16:26	30%	12%	1.0%	no record
B6 252 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:35	BOS 15:44	31%	16%	0.9%	61%
B6 1952 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:35	BOS 23:44	38%	17%	1.6%	58%
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:20	BOS 17:33	40%	23%	1.0%	55%
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:49	BOS 19:00	41%	22%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON