Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3115 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3115 MCO 07:21 → BUF 10:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1586 MCO 17:55 → BUF 20:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3115 Southwest	MCO 07:21	BUF 10:13	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 839 Southwest	MCO 13:31	BUF 16:20	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 1692 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:08	BUF 18:09	24%	12%	1.7%	75%
WN 2731 Southwest	MCO 20:06	BUF 22:58	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:55	BUF 20:46	31%	13%	6.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON