Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2728 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2728 MCO 06:21 → BWI 08:51 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2310 MCO 18:28 → BWI 21:09 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2728 Southwest	MCO 06:21	BWI 08:51	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 07:36	BWI 10:06	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:51	BWI 11:22	5%	2%	0.8%	67%
WN 142 Southwest	MCO 10:16	BWI 12:46	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	8%	3%	1.3%	89%
WN 2168 Southwest	MCO 13:09	BWI 15:40	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4567 Southwest	MCO 14:09	BWI 16:39	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 3664 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:09	BWI 17:52	18%	9%	2.0%	76%
WN 1079 Southwest	MCO 18:49	BWI 21:21	20%	5%	2.4%	no record
WN 967 Southwest	MCO 19:59	BWI 22:31	20%	7%	3.2%	no record
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:28	BWI 21:09	21%	9%	3.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON