Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1915 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 05:20 → CLE 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 2279 MCO 19:59 → CLE 22:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:20	CLE 07:56	5%	3%	0.9%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:06	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 769 Southwest	MCO 11:36	CLE 14:11	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2667 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:05	CLE 13:43	13%	5%	1.0%	82%
F9 1055 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:07	CLE 17:53	21%	10%	1.6%	65%
UA 583 United	MCO 20:35	CLE 23:15	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 2279 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:59	CLE 22:43	26%	12%	2.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON