Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3275 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3275 MCO 06:00 → CLT 07:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 362 MCO 19:02 → CLT 20:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3275 American	MCO 06:00	CLT 07:52	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1647 American Flight history →	MCO 06:58	CLT 08:50	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 08:12	CLT 10:02	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
F9 1760 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:34	CLT 08:29	9%	3%	0.9%	65%
AA 2170 American	MCO 11:07	CLT 13:00	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2917 American Flight history →	MCO 12:11	CLT 14:04	13%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:26	CLT 15:18	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:14	CLT 15:08	17%	6%	1.0%	74%
AA 1639 American	MCO 14:59	CLT 16:52	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 362 American	MCO 19:02	CLT 20:53	25%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON