Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 478 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day WN 478 MCO 07:01 → CMH 09:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2757 MCO 17:40 → CMH 20:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 478 Southwest	MCO 07:01	CMH 09:26	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1264 Southwest	MCO 09:21	CMH 11:46	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1122 Southwest	MCO 14:51	CMH 17:15	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2733 Southwest	MCO 17:06	CMH 19:30	24%	7%	6.0%	no record
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:40	CMH 20:14	24%	9%	7.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON