Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 511 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 511 MCO 11:25 → CVG 13:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 1301 MCO 14:31 → CVG 16:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:25	CVG 13:37	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
F9 1565 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:18	CVG 19:49	20%	8%	6.1%	82%
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:18	CVG 21:42	22%	7%	1.1%	68%
WN 1301 Southwest	MCO 14:31	CVG 16:46	23%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON