Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2703 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2703 MCO 06:36 → DAL 08:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1466 MCO 19:08 → DAL 20:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2703 Southwest	MCO 06:36	DAL 08:19	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2707 Southwest	MCO 07:31	DAL 09:17	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 354 Southwest	MCO 10:51	DAL 12:38	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2704 Southwest	MCO 12:46	DAL 14:32	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2247 Southwest	MCO 14:51	DAL 16:34	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2706 Southwest	MCO 16:13	DAL 17:59	21%	5%	2.4%	no record
WN 1565 Southwest	MCO 20:36	DAL 22:20	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1466 Southwest	MCO 19:08	DAL 20:50	31%	8%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON