Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2745 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2745 MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
WN 4283 Southwest	MCO 09:11	DCA 11:30	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	10%	3%	0.8%	83%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	10%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:39	DCA 14:04	16%	7%	0.8%	75%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	17%	6%	1.3%	70%
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:15	DCA 16:41	21%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 204 Southwest	MCO 13:46	DCA 16:04	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:22	DCA 19:59	25%	11%	8.0%	no record
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	25%	13%	0.9%	59%
WN 2475 Southwest	MCO 19:56	DCA 22:17	29%	10%	2.9%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	38%	18%	9.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON