Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1733 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day F9 1733 MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2716 MCO 19:46 → DEN 21:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1733 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:35	DEN 07:33	6%	3%	1.9%	91%
UA 2307 United	MCO 08:05	DEN 10:23	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 2712 Southwest	MCO 08:18	DEN 10:13	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 1022 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	DEN 12:00	12%	3%	1.6%	90%
WN 2835 Southwest	MCO 09:33	DEN 11:30	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	15%	7%	2.1%	93%
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:07	DEN 15:18	21%	9%	3.6%	85%
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	23%	9%	6.8%	69%
UA 667 United	MCO 15:32	DEN 17:23	26%	9%	5.1%	no record
WN 2714 Southwest	MCO 14:03	DEN 16:01	30%	8%	5.2%	no record
F9 3311 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:31	DEN 19:34	30%	10%	18.0%	76%
WN 2715 Southwest	MCO 17:01	DEN 18:57	37%	10%	11.2%	no record
WN 2716 Southwest	MCO 19:46	DEN 21:40	39%	10%	6.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON