Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2677 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2677 MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2457 MCO 19:06 → DFW 21:01 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	4%	2%	0.8%	93%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	8%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	8%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2961 American Flight history →	MCO 08:22	DFW 10:18	10%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	11%	3%	0.8%	84%
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:05	DFW 11:04	12%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DFW 14:45	17%	6%	0.9%	59%
AA 1606 American	MCO 14:45	DFW 16:43	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1937 American	MCO 20:05	DFW 22:00	24%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MCO 15:41	DFW 17:35	24%	8%	1.7%	70%
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:36	DFW 20:35	25%	7%	3.3%	76%
AA 3118 American	MCO 17:28	DFW 19:24	28%	9%	6.8%	no record
AA 2457 American	MCO 19:06	DFW 21:01	31%	10%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON