Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1309 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 MCO 05:57 → EWR 08:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 19:18 → EWR 22:07 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:57	EWR 08:48	3%	2%	1.1%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	5%	2%	1.1%	95%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	9%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:33	EWR 13:24	14%	7%	1.0%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:49	EWR 12:40	14%	5%	1.2%	81%
UA 254 United	MCO 11:44	EWR 14:36	20%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:56	EWR 15:47	22%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	29%	15%	0.9%	74%
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	34%	15%	1.5%	63%
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:33	EWR 20:24	35%	14%	5.3%	71%
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:11	EWR 21:02	36%	13%	2.5%	no record
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:20	EWR 22:12	37%	13%	1.9%	no record
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:18	EWR 22:07	52%	20%	2.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON