Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2821 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2821 MCO 10:38 → FLL 11:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2821 Southwest	MCO 10:38	FLL 11:51	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	18%	6%	0.7%	80%
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	35%	13%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON