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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Grand Rapids on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 13m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 3h 22m Minneapolis MSP 12:48 → GRR 15:17DL 1245 8h 17m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 7h 09m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 7h 09m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210 7h 46m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24AA 3167 6h 54m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 12:03 → GRR 14:05AA 1384 7h 07m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:08 → ORD 11:19UA 2466 1h 39m Chicago ORD 12:58 → GRR 15:13UA 2751 6h 05m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON