Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 94 at 09:12 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day B6 94 MCO 09:12 → HPN 11:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest B6 1694 MCO 20:17 → HPN 23:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 94 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:12	HPN 11:59	16%	5%	0.8%	76%
B6 194 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:42	HPN 14:31	22%	10%	0.9%	84%
B6 1694 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:17	HPN 23:20	27%	12%	1.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON