Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2746 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2746 MCO 08:55 → IAD 11:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1997 MCO 19:05 → IAD 21:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2746 United	MCO 08:55	IAD 11:30	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:48	IAD 15:23	11%	5%	0.6%	83%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:12	IAD 10:49	12%	4%	0.9%	77%
UA 390 United	MCO 18:23	IAD 20:58	16%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	20%	9%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON