Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 468 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 468 MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3469 MCO 19:34 → IAH 21:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:45	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	11%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	13%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:20	IAH 16:52	15%	6%	0.9%	89%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	18%	9%	4.4%	66%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:34	IAH 21:12	25%	9%	3.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON