Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3018 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3018 MCO 06:46 → IND 09:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 358 MCO 17:53 → IND 20:27 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3018 Southwest	MCO 06:46	IND 09:21	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4776 Southwest	MCO 08:46	IND 11:21	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1539 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:54	IND 09:38	6%	3%	0.8%	86%
WN 2174 Southwest	MCO 12:01	IND 14:36	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4986 Southwest	MCO 15:41	IND 18:15	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 358 Southwest	MCO 17:53	IND 20:27	23%	7%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON