Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4595 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4595 MCO 07:46 → ISP 10:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2890 MCO 20:36 → ISP 23:32 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4595 Southwest	MCO 07:46	ISP 10:38	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:04	ISP 15:59	17%	9%	0.9%	90%
F9 1238 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:20	ISP 17:25	17%	10%	1.2%	83%
WN 2890 Southwest	MCO 20:36	ISP 23:32	21%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON