Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2984 MCO 16:05 → JFK 18:54 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	3%	1%	0.9%	93%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	4%	2%	0.8%	88%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:44	7%	2%	1.2%	53%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	12%	4%	0.8%	82%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	14%	5%	0.9%	68%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	15%	8%	1.2%	74%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:59	JFK 22:43	23%	10%	1.7%	56%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	29%	13%	1.1%	79%
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:53	JFK 21:40	31%	12%	3.1%	91%worse than usual
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:05	JFK 18:54	36%	14%	3.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON