Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2862 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2862 MCO 06:18 → LAS 08:17 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2735 MCO 15:21 → LAS 17:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2862 Southwest	MCO 06:18	LAS 08:17	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1875 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:01	LAS 08:01	10%	3%	1.0%	90%
WN 2734 Southwest	MCO 09:38	LAS 11:36	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 2821 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:40	LAS 11:35	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 2735 Southwest	MCO 15:21	LAS 17:12	22%	7%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 01m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	6h 55m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 08:05 → ATL 09:42DL 1463	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	6h 57m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON