Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1573 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–55%.

Safest bet that day DL 1573 MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 798 MCO 19:12 → LGA 21:59 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	7%	2%	1.1%	91%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	17%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:04	LGA 13:57	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	24%	9%	1.6%	72%
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:55	LGA 16:40	24%	8%	1.0%	76%
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:04	LGA 22:48	27%	10%	1.3%	no record
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:23	LGA 15:11	31%	14%	1.1%	78%
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:09	LGA 21:01	41%	13%	3.6%	41%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:29	LGA 17:17	42%	17%	1.1%	73%worse than usual
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	48%	21%	6.9%	60%
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	55%	23%	2.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON