Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2742 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2742 MCO 06:56 → MDW 09:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2909 MCO 19:55 → MDW 21:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2742 Southwest	MCO 06:56	MDW 09:01	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2152 Southwest	MCO 08:11	MDW 10:16	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1568 Southwest	MCO 10:35	MDW 12:37	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2490 Southwest	MCO 14:26	MDW 16:29	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1670 Southwest	MCO 18:35	MDW 20:38	24%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 2909 Southwest	MCO 19:55	MDW 21:58	26%	8%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON