Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2779 at 09:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2779 MCO 09:01 → MEM 10:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2129 MCO 17:15 → MEM 18:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2779 Southwest	MCO 09:01	MEM 10:12	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2750 Southwest	MCO 14:26	MEM 15:38	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4898 Southwest	MCO 20:36	MEM 21:47	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 2129 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:15	MEM 18:25	27%	11%	10.4%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON