tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4802 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4802 Southwest MCO 10:06 MHT 13:20 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2753 Southwest MCO 20:06 MHT 23:23 21% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:22WN 2693 2h 14m Baltimore BWI 13:36 → MHT 15:14WN 672 6h 23m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 2h 50m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → MHT 14:29AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont 7h 01m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:32 → PHL 19:28AA 3153 2h 32m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → MHT 23:38AA 5966 · flown by Piedmont 7h 06m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:24 → ORD 10:38AA 2279 3h 32m Chicago ORD 14:10 → MHT 17:37AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 9h 13m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:48 → IAD 15:23UA 1757 1h 52m Dulles IAD 17:15 → MHT 19:02UA 4932 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 14m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → MCO 11:06 → PHL 13:54AA 629 3h 36m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → MHT 19:06AA 5942 · flown by Piedmont 8h 00m 98% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 11:39 → DCA 14:04AA 2128 52m Washington DCA 14:56 → MHT 16:40AA 5295 · flown by PSA 5h 01m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON