Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2894 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1610 MCO 19:29 → MIA 20:46 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	9%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 548 American	MCO 08:52	MIA 10:08	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	15%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 366 American	MCO 11:27	MIA 12:45	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 449 Southwest	MCO 10:41	MIA 11:52	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1642 American Flight history →	MCO 20:34	MIA 22:00	27%	11%	1.3%	66%
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:51	MIA 17:08	33%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:29	MIA 20:46	36%	12%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON