Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2760 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2760 MCO 07:11 → MSY 08:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 360 MCO 17:31 → MSY 18:24 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2760 Southwest	MCO 07:11	MSY 08:04	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest	MCO 09:11	MSY 10:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2762 Southwest	MCO 12:02	MSY 12:54	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:07	MSY 19:09	19%	9%	3.4%	82%
WN 3034 Southwest	MCO 15:32	MSY 16:26	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 360 Southwest	MCO 17:31	MSY 18:24	22%	7%	7.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON