tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4910 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4910 Southwest MCO 09:41 OKC 11:35 9% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3316 Southwest MCO 18:36 OKC 20:30 22% 7% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:08 → OKC 10:14DL 2490 5h 44m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 6h 57m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → OKC 12:22AA 1626 6h 24m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 11:57 → IAH 13:29UA 1493 3h 06m Houston IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 7h 18m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 17m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → OKC 10:43AA 1902 6h 13m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 11m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 22m 96% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON