Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	7h 57m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	8h 08m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	11h 16m	99%	85%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	9h 12m	100%	83%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → ONT 09:52AA 1820	7h 22m	96%	81%
Frontier Details →	MCO 06:01 → LAS 08:01F9 1875	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 10:01 → ONT 11:21F9 1283	8h 20m	98%	81%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:45 → ONT 10:04F9 2907	7h 29m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	9h 25m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	MCO 16:05 → JFK 18:54B6 2984	46m New York	JFK 19:40 → ONT 22:44B6 355	9h 39m	56%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON