Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 938 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1782 MCO 16:59 → ORD 19:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	5%	2%	1.2%	91%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:15	ORD 09:26	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 09:08	ORD 11:19	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	ORD 10:38	9%	4%	1.0%	76%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	16%	7%	0.7%	82%
AA 662 American	MCO 11:50	ORD 13:59	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	19%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	21%	9%	1.2%	70%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:25	ORD 17:40	23%	11%	1.7%	64%
UA 2845 United	MCO 18:01	ORD 20:12	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	27%	8%	1.0%	58%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:59	ORD 19:18	28%	9%	2.4%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON